Understanding expected returns in 2023

Our expected returns model estimates future returns across global asset classes. What does 2023 hold?

Back to bonds

Fahad Hassan, Chief Investment Officer, Albemarle Street Partners

2022 has been a difficult year for multi-asset portfolios as bond yields have risen in reaction to higher inflation. While an end to policy tightening may be a few months away, a well-diversified portfolio of bonds and large-cap equities can now enjoy a period of higher estimated returns.

Our estimated return framework for bonds uses prevailing yields adjusted for expected defaults. Gilts and hedged global government bonds now offer 3% plus returns, having started 2022 with minimal return expectations.

High yield bonds now yield 9-10%. We have cautiously assumed that around 16% of the index will default over the next three years, which represents the entire cohort of the lowest rated issuers. Adjusting for recovery, we get to an estimated return of 7.2%, which is the largest improvement of any asset class.

Within alternatives, we have seen a reduction in estimated returns for global infrastructure. The asset class has done well in 2022 and a higher valuation leads to a lowering of estimated returns.

We anticipate a slowdown in global economic activity in the first half of 2023, before a recovery late in the year. 2022 earnings have surprised positively as companies in a variety of sectors have delivered better revenues through higher prices. While corporate earnings will come under pressure, we expect earnings growth to resume in the second half. Small-cap equities, emerging markets and value-tilted strategies could suffer severe drawdowns during the recession, and we have taken steps to mitigate this risk.

Estimated returns for equities are higher than at the start of the year. UK-mid and large-cap equities look particularly attractive due to their depressed valuations. While valuations matter over the long term, there are periods when actual returns can diverge from expectations.

At Albemarle Street Partners. we use forward looking expected return models that use yield and valuation based frameworks for expected asset class returns. While valuations can serve as a useful predictor of long-term asset prices, actual returns may vary. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Conclusion

The challenging market backdrop has caused many to seek solace in high-cost alternative strategies that have a chequered track record of protecting downside. We believe that the rise in bond yields has created a sound footing for traditional, low-cost investment approaches and we have embraced this change whole heartedly. Our investment approach is data driven, forward looking, and focused on the long-term. This allows us to look through the here and now and focus on opportunities as they become available. We are excited by the opportunity set we see ahead of us.